In the year of Queen Elizabeth II’s Platinum Jubilee, Royal Ascot has taken on even greater significance, with some of the best racehorses in the world on the flat – from Australia to the United States to, of course, the UK and Ireland – eyeing their moment of glory in front of Her Majesty.
One of Elizabeth’s ancestors, Queen Anne, is the subject of inspiration for a race at the famous meeting in June, and that looks set to be the target of one of the outstanding horses on the planet.
Baaeed is as short as -300 with the bookmakers for the Queen Anne Stakes on June 14, and plenty will be including him in their Royal Ascot Paddy Power bets as something of a ‘banker’ to beat the likes of Master Of The Seas and Aldaary.
But there’s no such thing as a ‘sure thing’ in sports betting, so could the unbeaten four-year-old come unstuck?
The problem for the others trying to down the William Haggas trained four-year-old is that there doesn’t appear to be any chinks in his armor. The one-mile trip suits him down to a tee, and he seems able to perform in any conditions too.
Baaeed just nudged home in the slow(ish) conditions at Ascot last year in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, and he has also been a dominant victor on good going in the Sir Henry Cecil Stakes and the Lockinge Stakes, as reported on The Guardian.
It could take some freak weather in England in the first few weeks of June to stop him. His main competitor, Master of the Seas, comes from the successful Godolphin-Appleby partnership, but one win in his last four starts – and the fact he finished around seven lengths shy of Baaeed at Ascot last year – suggests that something significant will have to happen for those roles to be reversed.
The Fallacy of the Favourite?
One of the questions that newcomers to sports betting have, and a concept that many try to build punting strategies around, is the notion that odds-on favorites are infallible and impervious to defeat.
But research suggests that odds-on favorites in flat racing win around 59% of the time, on average, and so hanging your hopes on them blindly isn’t the wisest way to go.
Interestingly, favorites available at odds of -400 or shorter win, on average, 86% of the time – that’s the kind of success rate to crow about. However, when you think about the tiny profit margin available on such bets, and the knowledge that you will lose 14% of the time, reveals how difficult it would be to be successful long-term with such a betting strategy.
So, there’s no value to be had in blindly backing such short favorites and the real trick is to identify worthy market leaders and then those that are ‘false’ in some regard – that’s where the bettor’s edge lies.
At a meeting at Kempton Park on June 1, the card featured favorites at odds of +110, +125, +125, and -120, and only one of them won – a great day for the bookmakers then, and one to forget for punters.
That is just one example of many throughout the season, which confirms that the fallacy of the favorite is real.