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The Hidden Value in Hole-in-One Betting

Betting

Picking the overall winner of a golf tournament is not for the faint of heart. While the Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler’s of the world consistently threaten the top of the leaderboard, golf is unique in the sense that winners often come out of left field. Indeed, professional golf is not a closed shop like Formula One or soccer where a few standout performers share the limited silverware on offer. 

Conquering the outright market 

Take the 2023 US Open Champion, Wyndham Clark for example. Before the beginning of the showdown at Los Angeles Country Club, the American was priced at outside odds of +7000 to win the major yet that didn’t stop him from being crowned champion of the 123rd edition of the US Open on Sunday evening.

Now, this may prompt you to ask about betting odds on golf and whether you should look in the middle of the listed prices for the winner instead of the favourites at the top. 

As touched on, it’s not that straightforward when picking the outright winner of a golf tournament. At least, consider that the most up-to-date golf predictions back Rory McIlroy to win The Open Championship at Royal Liverpool in July at a price of +750.

In this instance, McIlroy is the smart bet having won The Open at the very same course in 2014. What’s more, the 34-year-old is in good form so you can’t in good faith bet against McIlroy winning even if he probably won’t – his last major win came almost ten years ago. 

At this point, you may understandably be scratching your head as to what to bet on when it comes to golf. While the truth remains that the outright market is full of value and worthy of consideration, it is also true that there are many other options when it comes to professional golf betting.

The impossible shot – or is it? 

At the top of the list is the hole-in-one market. Here, you simply have to choose whether you think there will be a hole-in-one during the playing of a competition. Often the odds hover around evens for both outcomes which is enticing when you take into account how good pro golfers really are.

As it stands, most players on the PGA Tour have made more than one hole-in-one during their careers. In fact, former tour pros Robert Allenby and Hal Sutton have made ten each. As you can see, it is not as much of a rarity for the game’s elite which is why the hole-in-one betting market shouldn’t be dismissed so easily.

Like any bet you may want to place, doing your research is critical and the hole-in-one market is no different. Essentially, you have to take into consideration how challenging the par-3s at a certain course are before deciding if there will be one – it is highly unlikely that one will be registered on a par-4 or par-5.

Typically, every 18-hole course will have four par-3s so you have to weigh up how probable a hole-in-one is after examining their respective layouts. For instance, if they are all 250 yards long and play into a strong wind then the chances of an ace are remote.

However, if they’re under 130 yards then the chances go up exponentially, it isn’t quite shooting fish in a barrel but the likelihood of one of the players holing out from the tee box is high. This was the case at the 15th hole at the 2023 US Open which was playing 124 yards long, by the end of the week, three different players had recorded a hole-in-one.

So the rule of thumb here is if a standout winner is not easily identified in the outright golf betting market, take a look at the hole-in-one odds and then cast your eye over the course in question; you may be celebrating more than the player who has managed the feat if you bet on yes.