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A dropping odds strategy to help you profit in 2020 and beyond

By January 14, 2020Betting
What are dropping odds

Dropping odds – you may have heard the term but you’re unsure what it means and what impact it has on your betting.


In this article, we’ll look at what dropping odds are, why odds change so much and most importantly a dropping odds strategy to help you profit from such scenarios.

Plus we share why you should sign up with OddsMonkey in 2020.

Ready? Let’s get started.

What are dropping odds?

To kick things off, what are dropping odds?

Dropping odds may be a new phrase to some of you, but it’s pretty self-explanatory when you look into it. Here’s a simple definition:

Dropping odds simply refers to odds that are reducing in value

For example, you might look at a market 20 minutes before a football match and the away team have odds of 5.0 to win. However, in the run-up to the event the odds keep dropping in value.

This is a perfect example of dropping odds in football.

Dropping odds graph

Odds reducing in value is a common theme in the online betting industry and can often be the difference between great and poor value bets.

It’s therefore important to understand these odds movements, what you can do about them and most importantly what strategies you can use to profit from them.

Before we look at the ins and outs of dropping odds, why do prices change so often?

Reasons behind odds movements

In the modern world of online gambling, it’s common for odds to change incredibly quickly and frequently.

Odds don’t just move in one direction, they can shorten (get smaller) and lengthen (get larger). This is the case both before an event starts and during play.

Much like the financial stock market, bettors are constantly buying and selling into different positions in the marketplace causing odds movements.

Buying and selling odds

This increased betting volume can be great for serious punters and professionals looking to extract as much value and it also makes the whole betting experience far more exciting.

On the other hand, newbies and amateurs can sometimes be put off by the rate at which the odds move especially on popular markets like football.

Bettors are sometimes confused about why the odds change so much and what that means for their betting strategy. When should you place your bets and what happens if you time it wrong?

These are often questions that new punters are concerned about when they first get started. However, using the following tips you can avoid any mistakes in your betting strategy.

Betting tips to avoid dropping odds

If you’re new to betting, you should aim to:

  • Place your bets when the odds are stable i.e they’re not changing
  • Aim to place your bets 15 minutes before an event starts

Using these two tips, you should avoid getting caught out by dropping odds in 2020.

However, as you become more experienced, you can use odds movement and specifically dropping odds to help you analyse where the money is being wagered.

Ultimately, this allows you to place more informed bets and increase your overall profit.

Bet £10, Get £10 - BETDAQ

This dropping odds strategy is more like trading than betting, but it’s still a great way to increase your profit.

However, this strategy carries more risk than traditional betting. As I mentioned earlier, time your bet badly and you could end up on the wrong side of the market with poor value odds.

I’m not trying to put you off this dropping odds strategy, it’s just something to bear in mind.

Online odds in 2020

In the modern world of online gambling, you’ll typically find that most bookmakers offer very similar odds to the rest of the market.

If one leading bookmaker alters their odds, the rest of the market typically follows. This is a common cause of fast-moving, dropping odds.

If you find odds for a market that are considerably higher than the rest of the industry you can be sure that’s a good value bet. Either the bookie hasn’t adjusted their odds accordingly or they believe the likelihood of an outcome to be different.

Whatever it is, you should keep an eye out for such scenarios as they don’t come around very often.

Thanks to advancements in technology, the bookmakers now use sophisticated systems to track market movements incredibly accurately.

This allows bookies to adjust their odds to price changes almost instantaneously. That means there are fewer opporunities to profit from odds discrepeancies.

OddsMonkey Betfair Integration

Dropping odds strategy

So now we know more about what dropping odds are and why they occur, let’s check out a dropping odds strategy you can use to profit in 2020.

The aim of any betting strategy is to maximise the amount of value you take from the bookmaker. The aim is to get ahead of the bookies so that you can spot the good value odds and maximise your profit.

In general, you want to avoid dropping odds and place your bets with bookies offering higher odds.

However, in certain situations and as you become more experienced, you should look to take advantage of dropping odds.

As I mentioned earlier, when the odds change across the majority of bookmakers, there’s a reason for it. Perhaps a market was originally overpriced or a key player is now injured etc.

Smarkets betting odds

Whatever the scenario, if you can jump in before all bookmakers change their odds, you can be sure to find some great value.

Another dropping odds strategy you can use and one that we touched on earlier is taking advantage of odds movements by buying and selling different positions.

As I say, this is more like trading rather than betting, but it’s still worth checking out. For more information on how to get started, check out this article.

Have you considered matched betting? Whilst this strategy is a little different to the ones mentioned above, it’s incredibly popular and very profitable.

If you’re looking to make a guaranteed profit from bookmakers free bets, you should sign up with OddsMonkey today. They walk you through the entire process hand in hand allowing you to maximise your income.

Football dropping odds

As you probably know, football is the most popular sport for punters to bet on. That means I get asked a lot of questions about football dropping odds.

For beginners out there, you obviously want to avoid any dropping odds as this reduces the amount of profit you make on a winning football bet.

Football dropping odds 2020

So how can you spot football markets with dropping odds?

You can use special sites that analyse football dropping odds in order to help punters avoid placing a bet on these markets. Here are some options:

Where to find true market odds

It’s well known in the betting industry that bookmakers are not created equal. Despite what I said earlier, one bookie might be offering certain odds, whereas others might offer something different and of more value.

It all depends on what bookmaker you use.

So where can you find the true market price and which bookies offer these odds?

OddsMonkey Betfair Integration

Generally speaking, most traditional bookmakers offer poor value for punters. This is especially true when you compare them to betting exchanges. Bookmakers build massive profit margins (vig) into their odds, sometimes as much as 12%.

Whilst this is nothing new and it’s been the case ever since betting companies were first formed, there are now alternatives available to punters.

Enter the betting exchange…

What are betting exchanges?

Betting exchanges are online platforms that match gamblers together. They don’t take on any bets as traditional bookies do. Instead, they simply provide the technology for punters to place bets against each other.

Betting exchanges charge a commission on the winning punters’ net profit meaning they make money whatever the result.

The benefit of this betting model is that punters have access to the true market odds. There’s no built-in profit margin which reduces the value a punter receives.

I recommend you start off using Betdaq betting exchange, they offer a great commission rate and an awesome range of markets. As you’d expect, the odds are as good as you can find in the betting industry.

Betdaq signup offer

For more information on betting exchanges and how to use them, head to this article.

None the less, it’s important to sign up to as many different bookmakers as possible. This way, you’ll have access to a wide range of sites offering different odds.

Furthermore, you can use line shopping and odds comparison sites to ensure you get the most valueable odds.

Dropping odds – Maximise your profit

If you’re serious about making money with betting, dropping odds are something you’ll need to get used to quickly.

Thanks to the speed of the internet and how quickly bookies alter their markets, you need to be quick if you find valueable odds.

Dropping odds across the entire industry can be a sign that the market was overpriced at first. If you find one bookie that’s slow to react, I recommend you place a bet on that market as soon as possible. It’s likely to be of great value.

Let me know your thoughts on dropping odds and what you do to maximise your profit from such price movements by leaving a comment below right now.

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About Charles

Charles is the founder of The Sure Bettor. He built the company with the aim of 'getting the word out' about matched betting.


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