Dropping odds – you may have heard the term but you’re unsure what it means and what impact it has on your betting.
In this article, we’ll look at what dropping odds are, why odds change so much and most importantly a dropping odds strategy to help you profit from such scenarios.
Let’s get started.
What are fast dropping odds?
To kick things off let’s check out what dropping odds are and what they mean for your betting.
Dropping odds may be a new phrase to some of you, but it’s fairly self-explanatory. Here’s a simple definition:
Dropping odds refer to the fluctuation in betting odds offered by bookmakers and betting exchanges, where the prices decrease over time
For example, you might be interested in a football match between Leicester City and Chelsea. The odds for a Leicester City win 20 minutes before the match begins are 4.0 (3/1 in fractional odds). However, in the run-up to kick-off, the odds keep dropping in value.
This is a perfect example of dropping odds in football. Below we’ll take a look at why this can happen and how you can exploit such odds movements in your betting strategy.
Odds dropping in value is common in online betting and can often be the difference between great and poor value bets.
Depending on the sport, the betting odds can change incredibly quickly. For example, odds in horse racing are constantly changing in the final 10 minutes before the off. You may only have a matter of seconds to take advantage of a good price.
It’s therefore important to understand these odds movements, what you can do about them and most importantly what dropping odds strategies you can use to profit from them.
Before we look at some dropping odds strategies, why do prices change so often?
Reasons behind fast moving odds
Bettors are sometimes confused about why odds change so much and what that means for their betting strategy. Dropping odds often reflect a significant shift in market sentiment and can happen for various reasons such as:
- Increased betting volume
- New information
By understanding these factors and how it affects your betting we are able to make more accurate predictions.
It’s important to understand that betting odds don’t just move in one direction. They can shorten (drop in value) and lengthen (increase in value) depending on various factors. This is the case both before and during a sporting event.
Increased betting volume
Much like the financial stock market, at a betting exchange like Betfair, punters are constantly buying and selling into different positions in the market causing odds to drop and increase regularly.
This is especially visible when odds continue to change and flash up shortly before an event begins.
This increased betting volume can be great for serious punters and professionals looking to extract as much value as possible. It can also make your betting experience more exciting.
Typically the odds at a bookmaker like Ladbrokes are more stable than at a betting exchange because they are set by the bookmaker. However, odds can still move depending on the demand for certain markets etc.
For markets with high demand, bookmakers will typically reduce the odds to decrease their risk. For markets with lower demand, the bookmakers will increase the odds to make them look more attractive to bettors.
If the bookies see great demand for a certain market we will get a case of fast dropping odds as they look to balance the book and maintain their built in risk profiles.
New information on an upcoming event can be another reason for significant odds movement. Perhaps a manager has left a certain club or various players are no longer available for selection due to injuries etc.
Take football for example, say a key player gets injured in the warm up and was unable to play. That teams chances of winning will decrease and the odds will move accordingly.
Whatever it is, a change in circumstances will impact the predicted outcome of an event and therefore the odds.
Those new to sports betting can sometimes be put off by the rate at which odds can move especially on sports like horse racing. Whilst dropping odds do occur in football, they don’t generally happen as frequently. Odds are more stable in the run-up to kickoff.
However, some bettors still question when to place their bets and what happens if they time it wrong. Not to worry, using our dropping odds strategies below, you can avoid making any mistakes.
So now we know more about what dropping odds are and why they occur, let’s check out what you can do about them.
Tips to avoid dropping odds
If you’re just getting started and you want to avoid betting during frantic periods of odds movements, consider the following:
- Place your bets when the odds are stable i.e they’re not changing
- Place your bets at least 15 minutes before an event starts
- If possible, avoid placing bets on horse racing markets
Using these three tips, you should avoid getting caught out by any dropping odds movements.
Strategies to exploit fast dropping odds
Whilst certain bettors may want to avoid dropping odds, as you become more experienced, you can start to exploit dropping odds and profit from such movements by utilising effective strategies.
This might sound risky at first, but when you know what you’re doing it’s very easy to spot the good value bets. Any betting strategy aims to get ahead of the bookies and take advantage of valuable odds in order to maximise profit.
Odds movements help you analyse where the money is being wagered. Ultimately, this allows you to place more informed bets and increase your overall betting profit.
1. Profit with early cash-out
A strategy you can use to exploit fast dropping odds is using early cash-out at bookmakers like Betfair and bet365.
Cash-out allows you to close your bets and potentially lock in a profit before an event has even started. Let’s say that you place a bet on Manchester United to beat Leicester City at odds of 4.0 a week before the game.
During the week, Leicester’s key goalscorer, Jamie Vardy gets injured in a European fixture and is no longer available for selection. The odds for a Manchester Utd win are likely to reduce. If you wanted, you could now cash out your bets and lock in a profit before the match even kicks off.
As you can see, this is a great dropping odds strategy to exploit any changes in price.
2. Look for the odd one out
In the world of online gambling, you’ll typically find that most bookmakers offer very similar odds to the rest of the market unless there’s a promotion such as an odds boost etc.
If a leading bookmaker alters their odds, the rest of the market typically follows. However, there are opportunities where punters can take advantage of odds that don’t fit in with this pattern.
If one bookmaker drops their odds, there’s a reason for it and other bookies are likely to follow suit. Perhaps a market was originally overpriced or a key player is now injured etc.
Whatever the scenario, if you can jump in and spot any bookmakers that haven’t caught up or that are slow to react and change their odds you can be sure to find some great value.
Likewise, if you find odds for a market that are considerably higher than the rest of the industry you can be sure that’s a good value bet. Either the bookie hasn’t adjusted their odds accordingly or they believe the likelihood of an outcome to be different.
You should keep an eye out for such scenarios but they don’t come around very often.
Thanks to advancements in technology, the bookmakers now use sophisticated systems to track market movements incredibly accurately.
This allows bookies to adjust their odds to price changes almost instantaneously. That means there are fewer opportunities to profit from odds discrepancies using this strategy.
However, it’s still worthwhile to have this dropping odds strategy in your arsenal.
It’s also important to bear in mind that this strategy carries more risk than traditional betting. As I mentioned earlier, time your bet badly and you could end up on the wrong side of the market with poor value odds.
3. Buying and selling
You can also take advantage of odds movements by buying and selling bets. This dropping odds strategy is more like sports trading than betting but it can still be very effective.
The aim of a financial stock trader is to buy low and sell high. The same applies to sports trading but we look to lay low and back high.
If the odds move in our favour, we are able to make a guaranteed profit no matter what the outcome of the event is.
Let’s say we place a lay bet on a horse at 4.0. In the final 10 minutes before the race begins, the odds lengthen (increase) to 5.50. We can now trade out of our position and lock in a guaranteed profit.
There’s a bit more to it, but this gives you the basic idea.
Whilst this strategy can be effective, it requires a lot more experience and may seem confusing to any beginners out there.
I’m not trying to put you off this odds movement strategy, it’s still a great method to consider if you’re up for it.
Football dropping odds
As you probably know, football is the most popular sport for punters to place their bets. I get asked a lot of questions about football dropping odds.
When should I place my football bets? Can I take advantage of a football dropping odds strategy? You get the picture…
For any beginners out there, you may want to avoid football dropping odds as it can make placing your bets quite difficult and may reduce the amount of profit you make on a winning football bet.
If so, use the tips and strategies mentioned above to avoid football dropping odds. However, some punters may want to exploit dropping odds using the strategies mentioned above.
Dropping odds tools
Taking advantage of dropping odds would be very difficult without specialised tools and software. There are various websites which offer such tools but my favourite is Oddspedia.
The software compares odds at various bookmakers across a wide range of markets and highlights any dropping odds opportunities which you can then take advantage.
Where to find true market odds
It’s important to add that not all bookmakers are created equal. Despite what I said earlier, one bookie might be offering certain odds, whereas others might offer something different and of more value.
It all depends on which bookmaker you use.
So where can you find the true market odds and get the most value out of your bets?
Generally speaking, betting exchanges such as Betdaq and Betfair offer the most competitive and best value odds.
What are betting exchanges?
For those new to betting here’s a short introduction to betting exchanges and how they offer bettors true market odds.
Betting exchanges are online platforms that match gamblers together. They don’t take on any bets like traditional bookmakers do. Instead, they simply provide the technology for punters to place bets against each other.
Betting exchanges charge a commission on the winning punter’s net profit meaning they make money whatever the result.
The benefit of this betting model is that punters have access to the true market odds. There’s no built-in profit margin which reduces the value a punter receives. Traditional bookmakers like Ladbrokes build large profit margins into their odds, sometimes as much as 12%.
The odds at a betting exchange are based on where the money is wagered by punters buying and selling into different positions in the market.
Betting exchanges can facilitate many fast dropping odds strategies. Using a betting exchange allows you to buy and sell on markets far easier than at traditional bookies.
I recommend you start off using Betdaq betting exchange, they offer a great commission rate and an awesome range of markets. As you’d expect, the odds are as good as you can find in the betting industry.
For more information on betting exchanges and how to use them, head to this article.
Nonetheless, it’s important to sign up to as many different bookmakers as possible. This way, you’ll have access to a wide range of sites offering different odds.
Furthermore, you can use line shopping and odds comparison sites to ensure you get the most valuable odds.
Dropping odds – Maximise your profit
If you’re serious about making money with betting, fast dropping odds are something you’ll need to get used to quickly.
Thanks to the speed of the internet and how quickly bookmakers alter their markets, you need to be quick if you find valuable odds.
Dropping odds across the entire industry can be a sign that the market was overpriced at first. If you find one bookie that’s slow to react, I recommend you place a bet on that market as soon as possible. It’s likely to be of great value.