Dropping odds strategy – How to profit from and exploit changing odds in 2020

Dropping odds – you may have heard the term but you’re unsure what it means and what impact it has on your betting.

In this article, we’ll look at what dropping odds are, why odds change so much and most importantly a dropping odds strategy to help you profit from such scenarios.

Ready? Let’s get started.

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What are dropping odds?

To kick things off, let’s check out what dropping odds are.

Dropping odds may be a new phrase to some of you, but it’s fairly self-explanatory when you look into it. Here’s a simple definition:

Dropping odds simply refers to odds that are reducing in value

For example, you might be interested in a football match between Leicester City and Chelsea. The odds for a Leicester City win 20 minutes before the match kicks off are 4.0 or 3/1 in fractional odds. However, in the run-up to kickoff, the odds keep dropping in value.

This is a perfect example of dropping odds in football. You might be wondering why this happens and how you can exploit such odds movements.

Odds dropping in value is common in the online betting industry and can often be the difference between great and poor value bets.

Dropping odds graph

Depending on the sport, the betting odds can change incredibly quickly. For example, odds in horse racing are constantly changing in the final 10 minutes before the off. Therefore, you may only have a matter of seconds to take advantage of a good price.

It’s therefore important to understand these odds movements, what you can do about them and most importantly what strategies you can use to profit from them.

Before we look at the ins and outs of dropping odds, why do prices change so often?

Have you considered matched betting? Whilst this strategy is a little different from the ones mentioned above, it’s incredibly popular and very profitable.

Reasons behind odds movements

Bettors are sometimes confused about why odds change so much and what that means for their betting strategy. But not to worry, we’ve got you covered.

There are various reasons for dropping odds from increased betting volume to a change in manager or jockey.

It’s important to understand that betting odds don’t just move in one direction. They can shorten (drop in value) and lengthen (increase in value) depending on various factors. This is the case both before and during an event.

Increased betting volume

Much like the financial stock market, at a betting exchange, punters are constantly buying and selling into different positions in the marketplace causing odds to drop and increase regularly.

This is especially visible when price movements continue to flash up especially in the run-up to an event.

Smarkets moving odds

This increased betting volume can be great for serious punters and professionals looking to extract as much value. It also makes your whole betting experience far more exciting.

At a bookmaker, the odds are more stable because they are set by the bookies. However, they still take into account the demand for certain odds.

High demand will cause them to lower the odds to decrease their risk. Lower demand will cause them to increase the odds to make it more attractive for punters.

Change of circumstances

Another reason odds can drop or increase is a change in circumstances. Perhaps a manager has left a certain club or various players are no longer available for selection.

Whatever it is, a change in circumstances may impact the likely outcome of an event and therefore the odds.

Newbies and amateur punters can sometimes be put off by the rate at which the odds move especially on sports like horse racing. Whilst football dropping odds do occur, they don’t generally happen as frequently as horse racing. Odds are more stable in the run-up to kickoff.

However, some punters still question when to place their bets and what happens if they time it wrong. Not to worry, using the tips and strategies below, you can avoid making any mistakes.

So now we know more about what dropping odds are and why they occur, let’s check out what you can do about them in 2020.

Betting tips to avoid dropping odds

If you’re new to betting, you may initially want to avoid betting during price movements and dropping odds. If this is the case, you should aim to:

  • Place your bets when the odds are stable i.e they’re not changing
  • Aim to place your bets 15 minutes before an event starts
  • If possible, avoid placing bets on horse racing markets

Using these two tips, you should avoid getting caught out by dropping odds in 2020.

Dropping odds strategy – Exploit dropping odds

Whilst certain bettors may want to avoid dropping odds, as you become more experienced, you can start to exploit dropping odds and profit from such movements.

This might sound risky at first, but when you know what you’re doing it’s very easy to spot the good value bets. Any betting strategy aims to get ahead of the bookies and take advantage of valuable odds to maximise your profit.

Buying and selling odds

You can take advantage of odds movements by buying and selling into different positions. Odds movements help you analyse where the money is being wagered. Ultimately, this allows you to place more informed bets and increase your overall betting profit.

As you can see, this dropping odds strategy is more like trading than betting and it does require more experience.

It’s also important to bear in mind that this strategy carries more risk than traditional betting. As I mentioned earlier, time your bet badly and you could end up on the wrong side of the market with poor value odds.

I’m not trying to put you off this odds movement strategy, it’s still a great method to consider if you’re up for it.

Profit with early cash-out

Another strategy you can use to exploit dropping odds is by using early cash-out.

Dropping odds strategy - Betfair cash out

Cash-out allows you to close your bets before an event has even started. Let’s say that you place a bet on Manchester United to beat Leicester at odds of 4.0 a week before their game.

During the week, Leicester’s prolific goalscorer, Jamie Vardy gets injured in a European fixture. This means the odds for a Man Utd win will be reduced to say 3.50. If you wanted, you could now cash out your bets and lock in a profit before the match even kicks off.

As you can see, this is a great dropping odds strategy to exploit any changes in price.

Look for the odd one out

In the modern world of online gambling, you’ll typically find that most bookmakers offer very similar odds to the rest of the market.

If one leading bookmaker alters their odds, the rest of the market typically follows. This is a common cause of fast-moving, dropping odds.

As the odds are generally very similar, punters can take advantage of odds that don’t fit in with this pattern.

Smarkets betting odds

If one bookmaker drops their odds, there’s a reason for it and other bookies are likely to follow suit. Perhaps a market was originally overpriced or a key player is now injured etc.

Whatever the scenario, if you can jump in before all bookmakers change their odds, you can be sure to find some great value. The aim is to place bets with bookmakers that haven’t caught up.

Likewise, if you find odds for a market that are considerably higher than the rest of the industry you can be sure that’s a good value bet. Either the bookie hasn’t adjusted their odds accordingly or they believe the likelihood of an outcome to be different.

You should keep an eye out for such scenarios as they don’t come around very often.

Thanks to advancements in technology, the bookmakers now use sophisticated systems to track market movements incredibly accurately.

This allows bookies to adjust their odds to price changes almost instantaneously. That means there are fewer opportunities to profit from odds discrepancies using this strategy.

However, it’s still worthwhile to have this dropping odds strategy in your arsenal.

Football dropping odds

As you probably know, football is the most popular sport for punters to bet on throughout Europe. I get asked a lot of questions about football dropping odds.

When should I place my football bets? Can I take advantage of a football dropping odds strategy? You get the picture…

Football dropping odds 2020

For any beginners out there, you may want to avoid football dropping odds as it can make placing your bets quite difficult and may reduce the amount of profit you make on a winning football bet.

If so, use the tips and strategies mentioned above to avoid football dropping odds. However, some punters may want to exploit dropping odds using the strategies mentioned above.

Dropping odds tools

There are various websites which have software to spot dropping odds in 2020. These sites don’t just analyse football dropping odds but a whole range of other sports and markets.

Where to find true market odds

It’s well known in the betting industry that bookmakers are not created equal. Despite what I said earlier, one bookie might be offering certain odds, whereas others might offer something different and of more value.

It all depends on what bookmaker you use.

So where can you find the true market price and which bookies offer these odds?

Generally speaking, most traditional bookmakers offer poor value for punters. This is especially true when you compare them to betting exchanges. Bookmakers build massive profit margins (vig) into their odds, sometimes as much as 12%.

Whilst this is nothing new and it’s been the case ever since betting companies were first created, there are now alternatives available to punters.

Enter the betting exchange…

What are betting exchanges?

Betting exchanges are online platforms that match gamblers together. They don’t take on any bets as traditional bookies do. Instead, they simply provide the technology for punters to place bets against each other.

Betting exchanges charge a commission on the winning punter’s net profit meaning they make money whatever the result.

The benefit of this betting model is that punters have access to the true market odds. There’s no built-in profit margin which reduces the value a punter receives.

I recommend you start off using Betdaq betting exchange, they offer a great commission rate and an awesome range of markets. As you’d expect, the odds are as good as you can find in the betting industry.

Betdaq signup offer

For more information on betting exchanges and how to use them, head to this article.

Nonetheless, it’s important to sign up to as many different bookmakers as possible. This way, you’ll have access to a wide range of sites offering different odds.

Furthermore, you can use line shopping and odds comparison sites to ensure you get the most valuable odds.

Dropping odds – Maximise your profit

If you’re serious about making money with betting, dropping odds are something you’ll need to get used to quickly.

Thanks to the speed of the internet and how quickly bookies alter their markets, you need to be quick if you find valuable odds.

Dropping odds across the entire industry can be a sign that the market was overpriced at first. If you find one bookie that’s slow to react, I recommend you place a bet on that market as soon as possible. It’s likely to be of great value.

Let me know your thoughts on dropping odds and what you do to maximise your profit from such price movements by leaving a comment below right now.

2 thoughts on “Dropping odds strategy – How to profit from and exploit changing odds in 2020”

  1. I really like your tips. They are so helpful but I still want to know more about “betting exchanges”. Would you please send some information or tips on this subject…

    Reply

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