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How to profit from matched betting casino offers (guide for 2019)

By September 4, 2019Matched Betting
Matched betting casino offers

Casino offers are increasingly popular in the matched betting community. As matched bettors diversify from risk free strategies, there is plenty of long term value in casino offers.

Get started with casino offers at OddsMonkey today.

Depending on your preferred strategy, there are both high and low-risk casino offers available meaning there’s something for everyone.

Let’s see how you can use casino and gaming promotions to help maximise your profits in 2019 and beyond.

Variance

Before we get into different matched betting casino offers, let’s look at some basics.

One of the key things you’ll need to get your head around is something called variance. Variance is the most important psychological aspect when starting with casino offers.

Basically, you are not guaranteed to win, and sometimes you may lose money. In fact, more often than not you will lose. This concept is known as variance. However, if you continue to complete profitable offers, your winnings should cancel out your losses over the long term to turn a profit.

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Basically the more casino offers you complete, the more variance plays into your hands and the more profit you should make.

Every offer has an expected value (EV) rating. This rating works out the average which helps determine whether an offer is worth completing or not.

In simple terms, it works out how much you would expect to win over thousands of attempts. The EV figure will vary over the short term each time you play an offer, but we are focusing on the long term maths rather than short term wins and losses.

To help with this long-term mindset, we need to work out if an offer is worth completing by calculating the EV.

Expected value of casino offers

As I’ve already mentioned, you are not guaranteed to win with casino offers. They are not risk-free like other matched betting promotions. However, over the long-term, we can use the expected value to turn the maths to our advantage.

Roulette table - Casino matched betting

As you may know, every casino game has a house edge. This is shown as a percentage and ranges from blackjack (0.5%) to roulette (2.5%) and slots (say 5%). This figure can be used to calculate the return to player (RTP) which is basically the flip side of the house edge.

RTP is the percentage of money a player should expect to win back in the long term.

To calculate RTP, simply take 100 and minus the house edge. For a slot, the RTP is 95%.

(100 – 5 = 95%)

With a 95% RTP, you should win back £95 on a stake of £100. This is a common RTP on slots but you should expect the highest RTP on blackjack.

How to calculate the EV of a casino offer

You may be wondering how you can work out the expected value of a matched betting casino offer. Whilst the calculation may look intimidating to beginners, it’s rather simple when you get into it.

Before you get started, you need the following three values:

  • The total bonus
  • The house edge
  • The bonus wagering requirements

Once you’ve got the data you can add it to the formula below:

EV = (Total bonus) – (House edge) x (Wagering requirement)

Rather than completing this calculation manually, you can also use advanced casino calculators which are available online.

If this all looks a little scary, not to worry. Thankfully, there are websites out there that complete this process for you.

Profit Maximiser is the best tool for calculating the EV of a casino offer and helping you to decide if an offer is a positive expected value (worth doing and potentially profitable) or negative expected value (not worth doing and likely unprofitable).

Profit Maximiser requires a subscription but if you’re serious about making money with casino matched betting it’s certainly worthwhile.

Bankroll management

You have carefully built up a decent bankroll from sports matched betting offers. Now the unpredictable nature of casino offers means it is sensible to apply bankroll management.

You should commit a percentage of your overall bankroll to each offer, which will spread the overall risk. You’ll also need a larger bank balance before starting casino matched betting.

The law of large numbers means that over hundreds and thousands of offers you are mathematically likely to end up with a profit – but this is not guaranteed.

Bankroll management in casino matched betting

One thing’s for sure, your bankroll will certainly fluctuate during your matched betting casino journey.

So you’re comfortable with variance, can calculate EV and apply a sensible bankroll strategy. Next up is to check out the different types of bonus. There are both low and high-risk casino offers which we’ll check out.

Low-risk casino offers

A typical low-risk casino offer is deposit say £10 to £20 and get a bonus with anything from 10 to 40 times wagering.

Play through your deposit once with small stakes, and your loss is limited to your deposit amount.

High-risk casino offers

Conversely, high-risk casino offers are not for beginners. Experienced advantage players often deposit up to £200 for welcome offers. Whilst these high-risk offers can be very profitable, it is possible to lose your full deposit amount in a short space of time.

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Choose whichever risk level you are comfortable with. All I’ll say is pick carefully and don’t rush into any decisions.

Different types of matched betting casino offer

Casino offers are available in many different shapes and sizes.

It’s fair to say, beginners often head straight to the biggest and most exciting casino offers. However, this is something you should avoid. The biggest casino offers aren’t necessarily the best offers. Its size doesn’t determine the expected value of an offer.

This is something you should consider when picking a new casino offer. Here are the most common matched betting casino offers you will encounter.

No deposit casino offers

Some betting companies may offer a free bonus where you do not need to deposit, but still get awarded a bonus. You will often need to wager the free bonus up to 40 times before you can turn it into withdrawable cash. This is called the wagering requirement (WR) or the rollover.

Whilst these offers are not guaranteed to make you any money and they may take a while to complete, the betting companies are effectively giving you a free bonus. You don’t need to deposit any of your own money so they’re effectively risk free casino offers.

Cashable bonus – Parachute

A parachute bonus is also known as a non-sticky bonus.

Deposit a specified amount, then get a bonus added to your balance. If you hit a win using your own cash (before using the bonus) – you are allowed to forfeit the bonus and withdraw.

The bonus acts as insurance if you fail to hit a win with your initial deposit. I usually aim to double or triple my initial deposit, then withdraw.

The bonus element of a parachute bonus may also have a winnings cap that you need to consider.

Cashable bonus – Full wagering required

With this casino offer, you can only withdraw any potential winnings after completing the full wagering requirement.

For example, with a deposit £10 to get a £10 bonus offer (10 times wagering on the bonus) – you can withdraw after playing through £100 worth of bets.

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Refund on losses

Also known as cashback offers. Use your own money to place wagers on a specific slot or game – get a refund to a specific figure or a percentage of losses.

Post wager casino bonus

A post wager casino bonus is received after you turn over your deposit a specified number of times.

Sticky casino bonus

A sticky bonus cannot be withdrawn. The bonus amount is usually deducted when you make a withdrawal.

Sticky bonuses are usually offered outside the UK – since a UK Gambling Commission decision in March 2018 banned them.

Matched betting casino summary

Risk free matched betting is the foundation of matched betting.

However, as the betting landscape changes, we can use sound mathematical principles when playing casino offers. Taking a little risk with positive expected value could yield long term profits.

Overall, matched betting casino offers are definitely something experienced bettors should consider adding to their strategies in 2019.

Thanks to Russel over at matchedbettingzest.com for his contributions to this article.

Let me know what you think about casino offers by leaving a comment below right now 🙂

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About Charles

Charles is the founder of The Sure Bettor. He built the company with the aim of 'getting the word out' about matched betting.

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