Here’s a guest post from Russel over at matchedbettingzest.com. Enjoy and let me know your thoughts by leaving a comment below 🙂
Casino offers are increasingly popular in the matched betting community. As matched bettors diversify from risk free strategies, there is plenty of long term value in casino offers.
Let’s see how you can use casino and gaming promotions to help maximise your profits in 2019.
Variance is the most important psychological aspect when starting with casino offers.
Basically, you are not guaranteed to win, and sometimes you may lose money. This concept is known as variance. However, if you continue to complete profitable offers – your winnings should cancel out your losses over the long term to turn a profit.
Every offer has an expected value (EV) rating. This is how much you would expect to win over thousands of attempts. The EV figure will vary over the short term each time you play an offer, but we are focusing on the long term maths rather than short term wins and losses.
To help with this long-term mindset, we need to work out if an offer is worth completing by calculating the EV.
You are not guaranteed to win with casino offers. However, over the long-term we can use the expected value to turn the maths to our advantage.
Every casino game has a percentage house edge – ranging from blackjack (0.5%) to roulette (2.5%) and slots (say 5%). The house edge figure used to calculate the return to player (RTP), which is the percentage you would expect to make over the long term.
Simply take 100 and minus the RTP. For a 95% RTP slot, the house edge is 5%.
Bonus Chum is the best free tool for calculating the EV of a casino offer and helping you to decide if an offer is positive expected value (worth doing and potentially profitable) or negative expected value (not worth doing and likely unprofitable).
You have carefully built up a decent bankroll from sports matched betting offers. Now the unpredictable nature of casino offers means it is sensible to apply bankroll management. You should commit a percentage of your overall bankroll to each offer, which will spread the overall risk.
The law of large numbers means that over hundreds and thousands of offers you are mathematically likely to end up with a profit – but this is not guaranteed.
So you’re comfortable with variance, can calculate EV and apply sensible bankroll strategy. Next up is to check out the different types of casino bonus.
No deposit casino offers
Some betting companies may offer a free bonus where you do not need to deposit, but still get awarded a bonus. You will often need to wager up to 40 times the free bonus amount to turn it in to withdraw-able cash. This is called the wagering requirement (WR) or the rollover.
Low risk and high risk casino offers
A typical low risk casino offer is deposit say £10 to £20, get a bonus with anything from 10 to 40 times wagering.
Play through your deposit once with small stakes, and your loss is limited to your deposit amount.
Conversely, high risk casino is not for beginners.
Experienced advantage players often deposit up to £200 for welcome offers. It is possible to lose your full deposit amount.
Choose whichever risk level you are comfortable with.
Different types of casino bonuses
Casino promotions are available in many different formats. Here are the main styles of bonus you will encounter.
Cashable bonus – Parachute
A parachute bonus is also known as a non-sticky bonus.
Deposit a specified amount, then get a bonus added to your balance. If you hit a win using your own cash (before using the bonus) – you are allowed to forfeit the bonus and withdraw.
The bonus acts as an insurance if you fail to hit a win with your initial deposit.
I usually aim to double or triple my initial deposit, then withdraw.
The bonus element of a parachute bonus may also have a winnings cap.
Cashable bonus – full wagering required
You can only withdraw any potential winnings after completing the full wagering requirement.
For example, with a deposit £10 to get a £10 bonus offer (10 times wagering on the bonus) – you can withdraw after playing £100 worth of bets.
Refund on losses
Also known as cashback offers. Use your own money to place wagers on a specific slot or game – get a refund to a specific figure or a percentage of losses.
Post wager casino bonus
A post wager casino bonus is received after you turnover your deposit a specified number of times.
Sticky casino bonus
A sticky bonus cannot be withdrawn. The bonus amount is usually deducted when you make a withdrawal.
Sticky bonuses are usually offered outside the UK – since a UK Gambling Commission decision in March 2018.
Risk free matched betting is the foundation of matched betting.
However, as the betting landscape changes we can use sound mathematical principles when playing casino offers. Taking a little risk with positive expected value could yield long term profits.
Overall, this is definitely something experienced matched bettors should consider adding to their betting strategies in 2019.